In recent years the form of the New Zealand rugby team has
been spectacular. Some of their recent achievements include:
·
Winning the 2011 World Cup
·
A “perfect season” in 2013
·
Winning all three editions of the Rugby
Championship (2012, 2013, 2014), and only losing one of their 18 matches in
three editions in the competition.
Of particular interest to me is their form on home turf.
Since losing to South Africa in Hamilton in 2009, the All Blacks have won every
one of their most recent home games (36). This remarkable feat led me to the
following question:
How rare are All
Black home losses?
To answer this, I decided to compare All Black home losses
with the occurrence of blue moons, which are colloquially known as a rare
event. More importantly though, their rarity is measurable or observable, unlike other events such as pigs flying
or hell freezing over.Traditionally, a blue moon was said to occur when there were four full moons in a season (Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer), although nowadays the more common definition of a blue moon is the occurrence of a second full moon in a month. For the purposes of this article I will use the latter definition.
| Summary of All Black Home Matches by Decade* | ||||
Number of Matches
| ||||
| Time Period |
won
|
lost
|
drawn
|
total
|
1904-1949*
|
16
|
7
|
2
|
25
|
1950s
|
14
|
5
|
1
|
20
|
1960s
|
22
|
2
|
1
|
25
|
1970s
|
12
|
6
|
1
|
19
|
1980s
|
29
|
4
|
0
|
33
|
1990s
|
34
|
7
|
1
|
42
|
2000-2009
|
50
|
6
|
0
|
56
|
2010+
|
35
|
0
|
0
|
35
|
Total
|
212
|
37
|
6
|
255
|
Percentage of Matches
| |||
Time Period
|
won
|
lost
|
drawn
|
1904-1949
|
64%
|
28%
|
8%
|
1950s
|
70%
|
25%
|
5%
|
1960s
|
88%
|
8%
|
4%
|
1970s
|
63%
|
32%
|
5%
|
1980s
|
88%
|
12%
|
0%
|
1990s
|
81%
|
17%
|
2%
|
2000-2009
|
89%
|
11%
|
0%
|
2010+
|
100%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Total
|
83%
|
15%
|
2%
|
The All Blacks have played at home 255 times since their first
home game in 1904 against Great Britain. They have won 212 (83%) of these
matches, and lost 37 (15%). The other 6 games ended as draws.
One interesting thing this table shows is that the All
Blacks played very few matches in the first half of the 20th century
compared to recent years. The All Blacks have played more home test matches in
the past five years (35) than they did in the 47 year period between 1904 and
1949 (25).
The win percentage table shows that their success rate has
tended to improve over the years. Up to 1950 the All Blacks had won 64 percent
of their home test matches. Between 2000 and 2009 they won 89 percent of their
home test matches.
The next table compares the number of home losses with the
number of blue moons by decade.
| All Black Home Losses vs Blue Moons 1904-Present | ||
| Time Period |
AB home losses
|
Blue Moons
|
1904-1949
|
7
|
19
|
1950s
|
5
|
4
|
1960s
|
2
|
5
|
1970s
|
6
|
3
|
1980s
|
4
|
4
|
1990s
|
7
|
5
|
2000-2009
|
6
|
4
|
2010+
|
0
|
1
|
Total
|
37
|
45
|
This table shows that in the period since the All Blacks
played their first match in New Zealand, there have been 45 blue moons and 37
home losses. This essentially proves that you can legitimately answer my
earlier question by saying that:
“All Black losses at
home are rarer than blue moons”
You could argue that the period from 1904-1949 shouldn’t be
included in this analysis, given that the New Zealand rugby team played so few
games in the first half of the 20th century. For this simple study
however, I am including the entire period for completeness.
So how does New Zealand’s home record compare with the home
record of some of the largest rugby playing nations?
| Rugby Test Match Home Losses for Other Nations 1904-Present | ||||
| Nation |
Home Losses
|
|||
| Australia |
110
|
|||
| England |
88
|
|||
| France |
112
|
|||
| South Africa |
52
|
|||
| Wales |
119
|
|||
| New Zealand |
37
|
|||
|
||||
| Blue moons in same period |
45
|
|||
| Summary of Rugby Test Home Matches by Selected Nations 1904-Present | ||||
Number of Matches
| ||||
Nation
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Draws
|
Total Matches
|
Australia
|
170
|
110
|
11
|
291
|
England
|
193
|
88
|
25
|
306
|
France
|
219
|
112
|
11
|
342
|
South Africa
|
160
|
52
|
11
|
223
|
Wales
|
187
|
119
|
11
|
317
|
New Zealand
|
212
|
37
|
6
|
255
|
The last two tables here show that none of the other rugby
playing nations listed here can make the same blue moon claim I made for the
New Zealand team. I think it is highly unlikely that any other team would be able
to make this claim either, because to achieve it, a team would only be able to
lose at home once every 2.5 years (on average).
So in conclusion, my question was:
How rare are All
Black losses at home?
And my answer, backed up by statistics is:
“All Black losses at
home are rarer than blue moons”
And it is highly unlikely that other rugby playing nations
can make the same claim.
Thanks for reading
